Here we are folks; one of the best days of the year! Thanksgiving is upon us and we have three lovely games to place some wagers on while waiting for our beautiful mothers, wives, girlfriends or goomahs to bring us that delicious Turkey with all the sides! My personal favorite is the stuffing (as it's properly called by us Yankees). Ugh, southerners call it dressing and it drives me mad. Ya'll know what i'm sayin'? I think you do. . .anyway, time to get into the goodness that you're here for -- Thanksgiving NFL betting tips!
Since this is a NFL PrimeTime picks column, i'll of course be providing picks for the Sunday and Monday Night Football games as well and since it's the time of year for giving, i'm going to throw in some Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks with my player props for Turkey Day!
NFL PrimeTime Record: 21-13 | 62%
Overall NFL Record: 38-23 | 62%
Best Bets Record: 8-3 | 73%
Thanksgiving Day Football
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
My Bookie Line: Bears -3
My Bookie Total: 44.5
"Kissing Titties" Trubisky is expected to sit this one out, and I think that's pretty much guaranteed at this point. That means Chase Daniel is now QB1 and I don't think that's going to mean great things for game flow and Bears' playmakers. On the flip side, NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate, Kerryon Johnson has also been ruled out which means were going to see some combination of LeGarrette Blount, Theo Riddick and Zach Zenner. Oh, and Marvin Jones is out again, so the Bears will need to take advantage of the lack of offensive weapons at Matthew Stafford's disposal and force some turnovers.
I think this game comes down to the run game and turnovers. The Bears have the better running back combo, but Jordan Howard hasn't been himself. I expect him to get things back on track, but three points with Chase Daniel is too much for me to risk. This is the bet I hate more than any other, but it's the best option in this one. We're going under, and getting a few brewskies down while watching this monstrosity of a football game.
Prediction: Under ↓44.5
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Tarik Cohen: ↑25.5 Rushing Yards
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
My Bookie line: Cowboys -7
My Bookie Total: 41
By now you've probably seen the Alex Smith video and you've also probably heard that it was 33 years to the day that a similar injury happened to Joe Theisman, by the one and only Lawrence Taylor. I'm not sure if you've had the pleasure of reading Theisman's tweet, but it was something to the effect of "Alex's injury, same as mine, 33 years ago". Great contribution, Joe.
Colt McCoy is taking over QB1 (yes, another backup QB on Turkey Day, terrific) and while that doesn't exactly excite me like the second plate of food i'll be eating tomorrow, he has performed well against superior Cowboys' teams in the past. In 2014 McCoy threw for 299 yards and helped the Redskins beat the Cowboys 20-17 on Monday Night Football. I don't believe history repeats itself, but I do believe McCoy is able to move the ball and put some points on the board.
The Dak, Zeke and Amari show continues to do just enough while the defense continues to play hard and make plays, but seven seems like too many points here. I'm betting the total in this one as well, but i'm also submitting a six-point teaser with the Cowboys, Under in the Bears / Lions game, and the Over in the Falcons / Saints game.
Player Prop Bet of the Game: Amari Cooper ↑4.5 Receptions
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
My Bookie line: Saints -13.5
My Bookie Total: 60.5
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